艾奥瓦猪肉会议报告

艾奥瓦猪肉会议报告

　　【加裕周评】上周，一年一度在艾奥瓦猪肉会议在德梅因举办。拥有美国约1/4猪的艾奥瓦是此次冬季展会的主办地。和以往一样，有大量参展商和参会人员。每一位想销售产品到美国的人都知道这是必到的展会。

　　我们的观察

　　本次会议组织得很好。在德梅因的举办地同样非常好。祝贺Doug Fricke以及所有做出如此成功努力的人。

　　我们与很多生产者以及行业人士讨论，得知他们如何判断我们行业的方向。

　　坦率地说，我们从来没有听过如此多不同意见。一些人认为仍然会有大的扩张。而其他人则认为行业处于停滞状态，只会有小的生产改变。第三种意见谈到每头猪损失40美元的悲剧，认为接下来会是自我毁灭。正如我们说到的反差极大的不同意见，这可能是我们在同一个地方听过最多的。

　　大家已经感觉到行业正在受到如美国人道协会（Humane Society United States，HSUS）和善待动物组织（People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals，PETA）等动物福利组织的围攻。进行母猪群养设备改造的噩梦和成本正在笼罩着行业。需要资本的投资成本（每头母猪200美元）令这个已经亏损好几个月的行业望而却步。对此进行妥协同时增加为加工厂维护可审计记录的时间和成本，以保护我们免受政府、食品安全以及动物福利的干扰，这些干扰导致许多生产者看不到未来的出路。

　　干旱、干旱、干旱。中西部在多数地方干旱，而过去几年的一月都不是这么严重的事件。由于去年夏天的干旱，今年的情况完全不同。我们的行业正处在悬崖边。接下来十二个月未来生猪价格可能在今天瘦肉猪价格的基础上浮动10%左右。无论如何，生猪生产很有可能会有一些小的变化。我们听到最多的就是2013年的产量和饲料价格。瘦肉猪价格是历史以来比较高的，但可能会被更强的饲料价格盖过。如果下雨，玉米会是5美元？干旱的时候是9美元。生产的成本差异高达50美元/头。这是成功和失败的区别。极其地不正常和无法预期。祈祷下雨。

　　1月的《国家猪农》（National Hog Farmer）有一篇关于辉瑞公司的化学阉割疫苗异普威的深度文章（这篇文章甚至提到更多关于异普威的新文章）。文章并没有提到消费者可能要使用绝育猪猪来抚养他们的小孩。我们认为，这篇文章没有提到注射化学阉割疫苗的工人（男性和女性）所面临的真正风险。此外如果员工绝育，使用这一产品的公司同样面临责任的问题。

　　文章没有提到异普威标签下方提到“对注射异普威人员的警告。不慎注射到自己可能会影响男性和女生的生殖生理，并对怀孕带来副作用。孕期女性不得注射此产品。育龄妇女在处理此产品时，应格外慎重。”

　　标签原文还写道：“给医生的建议：不慎注射到自己可能会影响男性和女生的生殖生理，并对怀孕带来副作用。如果疑似误注异普威，应当进行生殖生理检查并检测睾酮或雌激素水平（视情况而定）。”

　　化学阉割疫苗是律师的梦想。这样就可以带来诉讼。对于受伤的员工来说则是噩梦。疫苗及注射的成本约每头猪5美元。我们在巴西遇到的生产者使用过这一疫苗但后来停止了。成本并不证明经济结果以及给员工带来的风险。有非常多的方法可以用来赚钱。这是否值得承担道德、法律和财务的风险？如果读过标签，有很多母亲很难相信化学阉割不会影响他们的孩子。我们的行业正在面临环境及动物福利狂热分子的艰难境地。我们是否还需要去捅美国母亲的马蜂窝？这些荣耀都属于辉瑞的股东们。需要澄清的是，我们并不反对科学（辉瑞已经在私下指责我们）。我们反对拿我们员工的健康和猪肉的需求冒险。化学阉割疫苗是买方注意（buyer beware）的经典案例。我们都要给猪打针。这些猪都会动而且很大。这是很艰难的工作。有上百万头猪需要注射两针。失败以及对员工伤害的风险是不可思议的。按照这样来计算金额，美国一年6千万头公猪乘以2美元/头=3亿美元。辉瑞将残酷地赚走这些钱。

　　市场

　　上周六，全国每日瘦肉猪价格53-54%为$87.25/lb。一个月前是$80.76。从年初开始，生猪每头增加15美元的价值。目前的猪价高于去年，每周上市量一样（2,160,000）。我们期待看到猪价连续缓慢上涨。我们的预期是，去年7月开始的减栏将很快反映为同比上市数量下降。我们从艾奥瓦猪肉会议上得到的关于市场存栏的重要消息是，存在大量空置的育肥猪舍。不管美国农业部生猪报告如何，我们预测上市数同比下降且生猪价格将达到1.1美元/磅瘦肉。

　　这周将参加马尼托巴养猪研讨会。加裕在1月30日4:30pm -7pm赞助了接待宴，请加入我们并品尝点心和开胃食品。

原文：

Pork Commentary January 28, 2013 – Iowa Pork Congress

时间: [ 2013-01-29 16:08 ]

Iowa Pork Congress Report

　　Last week was the Annual Iowa Pork Congress held in Des Moines.  Iowa with approximately 25% of all pigs in America is the home for this premier winter show.  As usual there were a large number of exhibitors and many attendees.  Anyone serious to sell in the United States knows this is the must be at exhibition.

　　Our Observations

　　The Congress was well organized and the venue in Des Moines is excellent.  Congratulations to Doug Fricke and the many others that made such a successful endeavour.

　　We talked to many producers and industry participants on how they see the direction of our industry.

　　To be blunt we have never heard so many diverse opinions.  Some believe there is major expansion ongoing, much of it driven by Veterinarian managed production groups.  While others see the industry is in a holding pattern with little production change.  The third group talks about the trauma of $40 per head losses and are next to suicidal.  As we said earlier tremendous diversity of opinion, probably the most we ever heard in one place.

　　You have a sense the industry is under siege from Animal welfare groups like HSUS and PETA.  The spectre and cost of alternate sow housing hangs over the industry.  The reality of the capital investments ($300 per sow) for our industry which has had too many months of negative profits in daunting.  Compound this with ever increasing time and cost to maintain auditable production records for packers to defend us all from intrusive government, food safety and animal welfare leads many producers to wonder where the future is?

　　Drought, Drought, Drought.  The mid-west counties dry in most places, any other year in January it would not be much of an issue.  This year because of last summer’s drought totally different story.  Our industry is on edge.  The hog price will probably be 10% either way of today’s lean hog future for the next twelve months.  In all likelihood hog production will have little change either way.  The wildcard we heard over and over again is crop size and feed prices in 2013.  Lean Hog Prices are historically strong, but there are over shadowed by ever stronger feed prices.  It rains $5.00 corn?  It doesn’t rain $9.00 corn.  Cost of production range up to $50 head.  The difference between success and failure.  Extremely volatile and unprecedented.  Pray for rain.

　　The January’s National Hog Farmer has an extensive article on Improvest the Chemical Castration Vaccine from Pfizer (The article even highlights more coming articles on Improvest).  Nowhere does it discuss the stigma that consumers might have to serve their children meat from sterilized pork.  In our opinion the article does not address the real risk to workers (men and women) administering the chemical castration vaccine.  The liability of companies that use the product if an employee is sterilized.

　　The article doesn’t address what below is the label of Improvest “Warning for person administering Improvest.  Accidental self-injection could affect reproductive physiology of both men and women and may adversely affect pregnancy.  Pregnant women should not administer this product.  Women of childbearing age should exercise extreme caution when handling this product.”

　　Label Verbatim further:  “Advice to Physician:  Accidental self-injection could affect physiology of both men and women and may adversely affect pregnancy.  If self-injection with IMPROVEST is suspected, reproductive physiology should be monitored by assay of testosterone or estrogen levels (as appropriate)"

　　The Chemical Castration vaccine is a lawyers dream.  Let the lawsuits begin.  Employees getting injected would be a nightmare.  The cost of the vaccine and its administration is about $5.00 per hog.  Producers we met in Brazil had used it but stopped.  Cost didn’t justify economic results plus the risk to their employees.  There are so many other ways to try to make a dollar.  Is the moral, legal, financial risk worth it?  Read the label, how many mothers won’t trust that chemical castration won’t affect their children.  We are having hell now in our industry with environment and animal welfare zealots.  Do we need to stir up a hornet’s nest of the mothers of America?  All for the glory of Pfizer shareholders.  To be clear we are not against science (as Pfizer has accused us in person).  We are against risking our employees’ health and pork demand.  Chemical Castration Vaccine is a classic case of “buyer beware”.  We all have needled pigs.  They move a lot and their big.  It’s a tough job.  Two injections on millions of pigs.  The risk of failure and hurt employees is incomprehensible.  Follow the money trail, 60 million males in USA a year times $5.00 per pig = $300 million.  Pfizer will be relentless to get this gravy train going.

　　Markets

　　Last Thursday the National Daily Lean Hog Carcass price 53-54% was $87.25/lb.  A month ago it was $80.76.  A year ago $85.53/lb.  Hogs have gained about $15.00 per head in value since the first of the year.  Hog Prices are now higher than a year ago with about the same weekly marketings (2,160,000).  We expect to see hog prices to slowly continue to rise, this on our expectation that the liquidation that began last July will soon begin to be reflected in fewer hogs year over year coming to market.  As far as market inventory we got strong indications from the Iowa Pork Congress that there are significant numbers of empty finishing barns.  Our expectation despite what the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report indicates marketings year over year will be lower in the summer months and hogs will push to $1.10 lean a pound.

　　This week will be at the Manitoba Swine Seminar.  Genesus is sponsoring the major reception from 4:30pm -7pm on January 30, Please join us for some refreshments and appetizers.