【加裕周评】6月瘦肉猪涨至99.95美分！

Last Friday June Lean Hog futures reached 99.95!  The market is now beginning to realize there was no expansion to get more hogs to market by next summer.  With feed costs about $100 per head farrow to finish.  The $100 spread from $1.00 lean hogs and $100 feed cost is really, really nice after the too many months of financial losses.

上周五，6月份的瘦肉猪期货涨至99.95美分！市场开始意识到，扩张并不存在，明年夏天不会有更多的生猪上市。每头猪自繁自养的饲料成本约为$100美元。每磅瘦肉猪1美元，真实的饲料成本为100美元。价差达到100美元。在亏损数月之后，这是一件很好的事。

 

Other Observations

其他观察

USDA cash early weans averaged $56 last week, cash 40 lb. feeder pigs $72.54. We expect to see $70 early weans and $100 plus feeder pigs.  Farmers hate empty barns.  The empty bar space will continue to chase pigs.

上周，美国农业部的早期断奶猪现货平均价格为56美元，40磅生长猪现货价格为72.54美元。我们预计会出现70美元的早期断奶猪及100美元以上的生长猪。养殖户不喜欢让猪舍空置。空栏的情况将会继续抬高猪价。

• Sow prices continue to stay strong with 500 lb. sows bringing 66.71¢ a lb. or almost $335 each.  Sow marketings of 57,000 a week is not a low number.

• 母猪价格继续保持强劲，500磅的母猪每磅价格为66.71美分，每头约为335美元。每周57,000头的母猪上市不是一个小数目。

• Hog weights are running about 5 lbs. heavier than a year ago.  This tells us producers are pushing up weights as feed prices have declined, also we expect we have slowed down hog marketings.  This past week US hog marketings were 105,000 fewer than the same week a year ago, continuing a trend that has been occurring the last seven weeks.  Year to date the US has marketed 1.3 million fewer hogs than last year.

• 生猪上市体重约比去年同期重5磅。这说明随着饲料价格下降，生产者正在抬高上市体重。我们预计我们已经放慢生猪上市。上周，美国生猪上市数量为105,000头，低于去年的同一周，继续保持过去七周的发展趋势。年初至今，美国已比去年同期销售减少了130万头生猪。

• We expect the hog supply will soon start to be impacted by PED that hit in May.  In our opinion in the coming weeks marketings will continue lower year over year.  We expect Lean Hogs will be in the 90's plus through August of next year.

• 我们预期生猪供应将很快开始受到今年五月的流行性腹泻的影响。我们认为在未来几周内，上市数量将继续低于去年同期水平。我们预期到明年八月，瘦肉猪价格将保持在90美元以上。

• US Corn harvest is progressing.  We continually hear reports the yield is better than most expected.  Corn prices at life of contract lows seem to be verifying the good harvest.

• 美国的玉米收获正在进行中。我们不断听到报告，产量比多数人的预期更好。较低的合同有效期玉米价格似乎验证了好收成。

 

We Can't Help It.

情不自禁

We will write about what's going on in the Swine Genetic business.  We can't help it!  It's our business.

我们说一下种猪行业发生的一些事情。我们情不自禁！这是我们的行业。

• This past week Genus-PIC closed on the purchase of Genetiporc.  There is one less competitor now as industry consolidation continues.  Now Genus-PIC must begin the nasty work of cutting $11 million per year in synergies they have promised their shareholders via their own press release.  The only way possible to accomplish this goal in our opinion is to cut staff and overhead.  This could include geneticists, sales people, logistics, accounting and management.  As we say, nasty business.

• 上周，Genus-PIC完成对吉博克的收购。随着行业继续整合，现在减少了一个竞争对手。现在Genus-PIC必须开始根据他们在新闻稿中对股东承诺的内容，利用协同效应每年节省1100万美元。在我们看来，实现这一目标的唯一可能方法就是削减人员和日常开销。这包括育种专家、销售人员、物流、会计和管理人员。正如我们所说的，这是让人讨厌的工作。

• We are expecting higher genetic prices for Genetiporc customers as PIC price point is more aggressive.   Genetiporc at times were the cheapest breeding stock in the market.  Pic will help pay the $40 million purchase price with higher margins on Genetiporc and PIC customers.

• 由于PIC的价格更加激进，我们预计吉博克的客户将面临更高的种猪价格。吉博克的种猪往往是市场上最便宜的。PIC将支付4千万美元的收购价格，并从吉博克和PIC客户赚取更高的利润。

• Last week we wrote about the new Genetic company DNA which is the new name for the old Danbred North America.  We had some unhappy DNA people.  They didn't really disagree in what we wrote.  They just thought we shouldn't say it.  Old Company – becomes a new Company and with a press release declares a new genetic product with new characteristics.  We called it "Abracadabra Genetics".  They didn't like the characterization.  The point we were making is a press release does not make new genetics!

• 上周我们提到新的种猪公司的DNA，这是原丹育北美的新名称。我们惹到一些DNA的人不高兴。他们没有明确反对我们的观点。他们只是认为，我们不能去说。旧公司变成一家新的公司，新闻稿就宣布有新特色的新种猪产品。我们把它称为“巫术育种”。他们不喜欢这种说法。我们的意思是新闻稿并不能制造新基因！

• Last week Danbred in Denmark in a press release reiterated their commitment to North America.  We understand plans had been in the works for months for Danbred to enter North America with another dealer to compete with what was existing.  We expect this was part of the incentive for the creation of DNA genetics.  That was a smart move.  They probably had no desire to continue promoting Danbred and a new dealer benefit from its brand development.  New Danbred will take years to re-establish itself in North America.  In the Danbred press release this past week they announced their goal to be number 2 in the world.  Tough to do with no North American Market?

• 丹麦的丹育公司上周在一份新闻稿中重申了他们在北美的使命。我们可以理解文中提到丹育几个月的计划，丹育将与另一家经销商合作进入北美，并与现在的这家公司竞争。我们预计这是DNA种猪公司成立的动机之一。这是一个明智之举。他们可能不希望继续推动丹育品牌，而一个新的经销商将从品牌推广中受益。新丹育将需要几年时间才能在北美重塑品牌。丹育上周的新闻稿宣布，他们的目标是成为世界第二。如果没有北美市场，很难做到吧？
 

Summary

总结

Feed prices down.  Hog Prices seasonally strong.  No sign of expansion.  This past week June lean hog futures hit 99.95.  The sun will be shining for the next 10 months.  Time to make hay!

饲料价格下降。生猪价格季节性走强。没有扩张的迹象。上周，6月的瘦肉猪期货涨至99.95美分。在未来10个月内，阳光灿烂。应该有所行动了！