美国生猪市场萧条

生猪市场萧条

　　【加裕周评】美国生猪市场似乎陷入萧条之中。上周美国农业部的屠体分割肉平均价格是80 ₵，而美国农业部的53-53%瘦肉猪价格是86.48 ₵。不仅养猪户不能在86 ₵赢利，屠宰厂同样处于亏损。这个局面并不好，双输。这个行业看上去并不好，并不需要农业经济学家进行计算。

　　其它观察

　　• 去年同期的53-54%瘦肉猪全国价格是85.86 ₵。今年是86.48 ₵。不幸的是，去年的玉米是$6.40美元/蒲式耳，而今年是$7.00美元（原为$7.40）。去年的大豆是$322美元/吨，而今年是$409美元/吨。更高的成本且猪价没有上涨！损失更多的钱。

　　• 美国农业部40-50磅生长猪的平均价格目前是$75.00，去年是$85.00。价格下跌反映了今年更高的饲料价格，而我们的观点是并非来自供应量增加。

　　• 去年，美国猪肉出口了53.8亿磅。这是新的纪录（增加了3.7%）。由于全球猪肉需求不断走高，而美国-加拿大目前有最廉价的猪肉来源。我们预计2013年的猪肉出口将继续走强。

　　玉米-谷物

　　在过去的十年间，我们写了很多我们在俄罗斯、乌克兰、巴西和中国看到的情形。我们看到他们极力将未开垦的土地用于生产并增加产量。过去，当美国玉米价格徘徊在$2.00美元/蒲式耳时，并没有任何动力来将土地用于生产并提高产量。最近我们看到的数据表明，在过去五年间全世界有12,300万亩新的土地用于作物生产。美国有2,000万亩土地从其它作物转向玉米，在12,300万亩中名列前茅。

　　2004-2005年间，美国生产了30,000吨玉米（约120亿蒲式耳），而世界其它国家生产了40,500吨玉米（约162亿蒲式耳）。2004-2005年间，美国生产了30,000吨玉米（约120亿蒲式耳），而世界其它国家生产了70,500吨玉米（约262亿蒲式耳）。

　　2004-2005年间，美国生产了107亿蒲式耳，而世界其它国家生产了60,000吨玉米（约240亿蒲式耳）。合计345亿蒲式耳。所以尽管美国干旱，2012年便于的玉米产量比2004-05年增加了80亿蒲式耳。如果美国的产量好，那么2013年世界产量无疑将突破400亿。这将比2004-05年增加50%。

　　美国在世界玉米产量中所占比例正在下滑。美国原来占世界产量的40%，而现在是30%。世界范围内用于生产肉类蛋白质的玉米需求得到增加并推高玉米价格。而美国用于生产乙醇造成的玉米大量转移不仅提高了玉米的价格，而使美国的玉米退出全球出口市场而由其它国家填补空白。你只需要看一下今年美国玉米出口的自由落体就能看到一切正在发生着。

　　市场

　　我们必须说我们很困惑。十二月的美国生猪报告表明上一季度的种猪群得到增加。尽管九月至十一月每头高达40美元的损失，这还是发生了。扩张是为了应对世界末日？我们很怀疑。另一方面，我们得知业内人士认为雨季即将到来，美国的玉米产量将突破160亿蒲式耳。结合世界的产量，这将推动玉米价格降至$5.00美元/蒲式耳？我父亲总是告诉我，我们的优势就是我们的弱势。是否让我们在养猪业生存下来的乐观也在诅咒着我们天生过于乐观？我们知道一定会下雨？

　　虽然我们有一些疑问。我们仍然相信今年夏天的生猪数量将低于去年。我们知道美国在过去的42年中只有5次干旱。没有人会回到过去。尽管气候变化，离上次干旱已经有23年过去了。下雨的机率很大。这表明我们和大多数养猪业者对未来的相同期望。更多的谷物，更少的猪。在未来得到更多的利润。

原文：

Pork Commentary Feb 19, 2013 – Hog Market in Doldrums

时间: [ 2013-02-19 16:22 ]

Hog Market in Doldrums

　　The US hog market appears to be mired in the doldrums. USDA carcass cut-outs averaged 80₵ last week while 53-54% USDA lean hog prices were 86.48₵.

　　It is not only hog farmers that can’t produce for 86₵ at a profit but packers have negative margins also. Not a very good scenario; Lose-Lose. It doesn’t take an ag-economist to calculate that this business isn’t looking too shiny.

　　Other Observations

　　• Last year same time 53-54% lean National price was 85.86₵. This year 86.48₵. Unfortunately corn was $6.40 a bushel versus $7.00 (was $7.40) and Soymeal a year ago $322 a ton versus, $409 ton this year. Higher costs and no more money for hogs! Lose even more money.

　　• USDA 40-50 lb. feeder pigs are currently averaging $75.00, a year ago they were $85.00. The lower price a reflection of higher feed prices this year but in our opinion not from more supply.

　　• US Pork exports were 5.38 billion pounds last year. A new record (+3.7%). We expect continued strong exports in 2013 as global pork demand continues to increase while USA-Canada currently has the cheapest source of pork.

　　Corn-Grains

　　Over the last couple years we have written about how on our travels to Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and China we have seen the tremendous push to bring un-cultivated lands into production and increase yields. In the past when US corn hovered around $2.00 a bushel there was no incentive to bring land into production and push yields higher. Recently we saw data that indicates the world has in the last five years brought 123 million new acres into crop production. The US has shifted 20 million acres to corn from other crops on top of this 123 million.

　　In 2004-2005 the US produced 300 million metric tons of corn, (Approximately 12 billion bushels), the rest of the world 405 million metric tons of corn (approximately 16.2 billion bushels). In the year 2004-2005 total world production was 705 million tons or approximately 26.2 billion bushels．

　　In 2012-13 the US produced 10.7 billion bushels while the rest of the world produced 600 million tons (approximately 24 billion bushels). Put it together 34.5 billion bushels. So despite the drought in the US the world produced in 2012 about 8 billion more bushels of corn than 2004-05. Get a decent crop year in USA, then 2013 world production could hit 40 billion bushels without a doubt. That would be a 50 per cent increase over 2004-05.

　　The US dominance of world corn production has slipped, whereas the US was about 40% of the world’s production it now will be about 30%. Demand for corn to produce meat protein around the world has increased demand and pushed corn prices higher. While the massive diversion of corn to produce ethanol in the United States has not only increased corn prices but has taken US corn out of the global export markets allowing other countries to fill the void. You only have to look at this year’s free fall of the US corn exports to see that his is happening.

　　Markets

　　We have to say we are perplexed. The December USDA hogs and pigs report indicated an increase in the breeding herd last quarter. This happened despite financial losses of up to $40 per head in the Sept – Nov quarter. Expansion in the face of Armageddon? We doubt it. On the flip side have we got an industry convinced it will rain and the US corn crop will hit 16 billion bushels and combined with world production drive corn to below $5.00 a bushel? My father always told me our strength is our weakness. Is the optimism we all have that it takes to survive in the hog industry our curse that we are by nature too optimistic? We know it will rain?

　　Though we have some doubts. We still believe hog numbers will be lower this summer compared to last. We know the US has only five droughts in the last 42 years. None were back to back years. Despite the talk of climate change it was 23 years since the previous drought. The odds are it will rain. It appears to us we are in a majority of how hog producers see the future. More grain – fewer hogs. Much needed profits coming.