加拿大西部的养猪业重组

加拿大西部的养猪业重组

【加裕周评】加拿大（西部）三家最大的养猪公司在之前几周发生了股权的重大变化。我们认为事件的根源是商业模式存在问题。拥有26,000头母猪的Puratone由于财务困难被枫叶食品（Maple Leaf Foods）收购，拥有45,000的Big Sky可能会被Olymel公司收购。而上周，拥有47,000头母猪、屠宰厂及Fast Genetics的Hylife出售了1/3的股权给日本的伊藤忠商事。

同样的问题，这三家分娩至育种的一条龙公司使用同样的经营方式，购买饲料并出售商品猪给加拿大市场。三家公司均没有足够的财力来防止股权变化。在过去五年去，他们受到了高涨的加拿大元、饲料成本以及亏本的猪价。现在他们都被收购，而收购方都在为自己的屠宰厂及猪肉市场寻找猪肉来源。

在过去五年间，负债的现金流已经影响了生产目标和效率。饲料使用廉价的配方并影响了生产成绩、优秀员工对未来没有信心而离职、猪舍不再维护整修，同时种猪业遭遇了投资不足及错误决定的影响。对于分娩育肥结果的公司而言，最重要的可能是他们购买饲料并以亏本的价格出售商品猪。行业出现了上千万元的损失。而同时家族式的分娩至育肥一条龙猪场自己种植谷物并自行进行管理及劳动，可能刚好保本。

现在，这三家公司都和有钱的公司联系在一起，枫叶食品、Olymel及伊藤忠商事。这将是长期的关系。我们不会感到惊讶，伊藤忠商事这家大型日本贸易公司将在未来获得对Hylife的主要控制权。

对于这些公司的前东家来说，不好的事情就是只能得到少量的钱。投资后亏本，这真的是很不好的剧本。而新东家的钱将用于偿还债务。

这个故事的寓意就是，不要继续亏本。但可能亨利·福特说得最好。

“失败只是重新开始的机会，让你重新开始的时候更加明智。”

商品猪

美国的商品猪市场仍在瘦肉80美分左右徘徊，这导致生产者在当前的饲料价格下将损失40美元/头猪。在接下来的几周时间里，假期的几周市场短缺导致的商品猪积压[译者注：圣诞期间屠宰厂不上班，导致积压]将会消失，我们期待瘦肉猪的价格将上涨至90美分/磅。

我们感觉目前商品猪的重量比去年低了2磅。这反映了当前的商品猪存栏并会支持价格上涨。

美国的猪肉出口仍然强劲将将继续保持。全球几个主要国家的猪价明显高过美国，这提供了很好的猪肉需求和空间并使美国有真正的竞争优势。基于美元/磅活重的全球生猪价格分别是墨西哥87美分、巴西73美分、俄罗斯1.03美元、中国1.02美元以及西班牙77美分。

总结

由于巨大的财务亏损，Big Sky、Puratone及Hylife出现了重大的股权变化。我们很难相信在整个行业每周亏损1亿美元的恶劣环境下，仍然出现母猪群扩张的情况。如果真的是这样的话，我们必须有十分积极的银行家，而且他们极其看好养猪业的未来。

原文：

Pork Commentary January 14, 2013 – Western Canada’s Hog Industry Restructures

时间: [ 2013-01-14 18:41 ]

Big Sky – HyLife – PuratoneWestern Canada’s Hog Industry Restructures
Big Sky – HyLife – Puratone

Three of the largest Hog Operations in Canada (Western Canada) have had major changes in ownership in the last few weeks. All in our opinion due to what was a broken business model. Puratone 26,000 Sows purchased while under financial duress by Maple Leaf Foods, Big Sky 45,000 sows it appears will be purchased by Olymel Corporation out of receivership and then last week HyLife 47,000 Sows, slaughter plant, Fast Genetics sold one third of their shares to Itouchu Corporation of Japan.

Common thread, all three farrow to finish operations purchased their feed and sold hogs in the Canadian Market. All three without deep enough pockets to prevent change of ownership structure when hit by the last five years of a high Canadian dollar, high feed costs and negative profit hog prices. All three now purchased by companies that are looking for pork for their slaughter plants and pork markets.

Over the last five years negative cash flows have affected production targets and efficiencies. Feed rations were cheapened, that cut production results, good employees left as they saw the writing of the wall, maintenance and repair was not kept up in the buildings, while swine genetics suffered from lack of investment and poor decisions. Maybe most importantly the corporate farrow to finish structure, buying feed while selling hogs at a lower price was unprofitable. 10’s of millions of dollars were lost, while family farrow to finish operations that grow their crops and provide themselves significant management and labour could produce at a lower breakeven.

Now, all three production companies are tied to deep pocketed Corporations, Maple Leaf Foods, Olymel and Itouchu. They will now be long term relevant. We would not be surprised if Itouchu a huge Japanese trading company takes majority control of HyLife sometime in the future.

The sad part for the former shareholders of all these production companies is little money got to them. Invested it, and then lost it, a real bad scenario. The money of new owners has gone to pay debt.

Moral of story, can’t continually lose money and stay whole, but maybe Henry Ford said it best:

“Failure is simply the opportunity to begin again, this time more intelligently”

Markets

The US Hog market continues to hover around 80₵ lean which is leading to producers losing up to $40 per head at current feed prices. In the next few weeks the back log of hogs from the shortened marketing weeks of the holidays will clear up and we expect lean hogs to head towards 90₵ lean per pound.

It appears to us Market hog’s weights are currently running about 2lbs liveweight lower than a year ago. This reflects a more current market hog inventory and allows prices to spring up.

US Pork exports remain strong and will stay there with major Global Hog Prices significantly higher that the US it give a real competitive advantage while giving room for good demand. Global Hog Prices, US dollar liveweight a pound, Mexico 87₵, Brazil 73₵, Russia $1.03, China $1.02 and Spain 77₵ per pound.

Summary

Big Sky, Puratone and HyLife have had big shareholder changes, all due to huge financial losses. We find it hard to believe that in such a grim circumstances of an entire industry currently losing $100 million per week that we are to believe there is new sow herd expansion. If so we must have very positive bankers and thy must be extremely bullish about the future of the hog industry.

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