美国瘦肉猪价格上涨

The U.S. hog price is racing higher. A month ago, lean hogs averaged 59.76¢ a lb. Last Friday Iowa – S. Minnesota lean hogs averaged 79.17, 20¢ a lb. increase in four weeks. More than $40.00 per head. We expect this relentless trend will continue over the next few weeks with lean hogs reaching .95¢ a lb. or more.

美国生猪价格正在上涨。一个月前的瘦肉猪平均价格为59.76美分/磅。上周五，艾奥瓦州-南明尼苏达州的瘦肉猪平均价格为79.17美元/磅，在4周内上涨了20美分。每头猪超过40美元。我们预计这疯狂的趋势将在接下来的几周持续下去，瘦肉猪价格将达到 95美分/磅甚至更高。

Our Observations

我们的观察

March US pork exports to the world were 440 million pounds, the largest monthly total in the last year. In January during the height of the Pacific coast shipping issues, US world pork exports were 347 million pounds.

3 月美国向全球出口了4.4亿磅猪肉，这是上一年数量最多的一个月。1月份发生太平洋海岸航运期间，美国的全球猪肉出口量为3.47亿磅。

We expect exports will continue to grow as the demand for pork accelerates, reaching beyond 500 million pounds per month. Exports will be led by Mexico, Korea, Japan and China.

随着猪肉需求的增速，我们预计出口量将继续增加，每个月达到5亿磅以上。墨西哥、 韩国、 日本和中国将引领出口量。

Below is a picture taken last week in a Beijing train station. It’s a display advertising American Pork – Virginia Sausage and Hams. Ad is from Smithfield parent company. American Pork, a premium product. It is not if, but when American Pork goes to China at huge levels. Smithfield being Chinese owned is pounding the beachhead.

下面是上个星期在北京火车站拍的1张照片。这是1张美国猪肉的广告 — — 弗吉尼亚风味香肠和火腿。广告由史密斯菲尔德的母公司制作。“美国猪肉，优质产品。”如果真是这样，美国猪肉就会大量进入中国。中国拥有的史密斯菲尔德食品公司正在冲锋陷阵。

U.S. pork cut-outs are 79.57¢/lb., at that price and market hogs 79.17¢/lb. there is no packer margin. We expect that pork exports did processing margins that are not reflected in the U.S. pork cut-outs must be good as packers have pushed lean hog prices higher.

美国猪肉切块价格为79.57美分/磅。同时，商品猪价格为79.17美分/磅，屠宰厂没有利润。由于屠宰厂将瘦肉猪价格推高了，我们预计不能在美国猪肉切块价格上得到反映的猪肉出口加工利润应该不错。

Market hog weights continue to decline, last year this week, lean hog carcasses averaged 219.61 lbs. Currently lean hog carcasses are 213 lbs. Not only less pork per carcass but also a reflection of hogs pulled ahead this year. This will support lean hog prices in the coming weeks. You only kill them once.

商品猪重量继续下降，去年这一周，瘦肉猪的平均胴体重为219.61磅。目前的瘦肉猪胴体重为213磅。不仅是每头胴体的猪肉减少，也反映了今年猪的减栏情况。这将在接下来几周抬高瘦肉猪价格。

The U.S. dollar index has devalued almost 5% in the last month, lowering US pork costs to importers in most countries

上个月美元指数已经贬值将近5%。对于大多数国家的进口商而言，美国猪肉成本降低。

US pork cut-outs at 79.57¢/lb. pale to US beef cut-outs at $2.58/lb. Pork is either a great deal for consumers and/or big margin maker for retailers. We believe pork and beef cut-outs will narrow, meaning to us pork cut-outs are going higher. The reason – beef supply not there, beef price will hold. As summer seasonal supply of pork declines and exports increase, we expect pork cut-outs to move over $1.00.

美国猪肉切块的价格为79.57美分/磅。与2.58美元/磅的美国牛肉切块相比，相当惨淡。猪肉是消费者的好食品，也能很好地为零售商获取利润。我们相信猪肉和牛肉的差价将会缩小，这意味着猪肉切块会继续走高。理由是，如果牛肉的供应没有跟上，牛肉价格将会保持住。随着猪肉在夏季出现季节性的供应量下降以及出口的增加，我们预计猪肉切块的价格将会上涨超过1美元。

Avian Flu – Latest U.S. data to indicate 25 million chickens and turkeys have been exterminated due to Avian Flu. Looks like it is far from under control? If Avian Flu gets in the broiler and turkey breeder flocks all bets off on chicken and turkey supply. Avian Flu makes PED look like a common cold.

禽流感 — — 美国的最新数据表明已经有2500万只鸡和火鸡因为禽流感而被扑杀。看上去这远未得到控制。如果禽流感影响到肉鸡和火鸡育种场，鸡和火鸡的供应将会付之一炬。在禽流感面前，猪流行性腹泻就像一场普通的感冒。

Summary

总结

Prices are racing higher. Over $40 per head gain the last four weeks. We expect the trend to continue with lean hogs reaching .95¢/lb. plus, pushed by seasonally lower hog numbers, stronger pork exports and high beef prices.

生猪价格正在上涨在过去4周，每周猪上涨超过40美元。我们预计这一趋势仍将继续，在生猪数量季节性下降、猪肉出口强劲以及牛肉价格高企的推动下，瘦肉猪将超过95美分/磅。