外媒评论：中国的死猪

养猪评论2013年3月18日 - 生猪价格继续下跌

【加裕周评】美国和加拿大生猪市场继续面临惊人的利润亏损，平均每头自繁自养的商品猪亏损35-40美元。

基本情况

美国53-54％基准瘦肉猪的平均价格为76₵/磅。一年前的同期价格为86₵/磅。每头下跌20元。一个月前的53-54％瘦肉型猪价格为87₵/磅。每头同样下跌20美元。

上周现货市场的早期断奶猪平均价格为29.30美元/40磅。生长猪平均61.66美元。每头价格均从近期高点下跌20％至30美元。

爱荷华-南明尼苏达州上周的平均体重为276.9磅，一年前为276.3英镑。

6月份瘦肉猪在12月初期的高峰超过1.00美元。上周五，6月份瘦肉猪收于89.32美元。自12月以来，6月份的期货下跌超过20美元/头。

上周，美国市场上销售220.3万头生猪，去年的同一周为217.9万。今年稍有增长。

2月1日以来，美元与其他外币的汇率有所增长。2月1日，与一篮子世界货币进行对比衡量价值的美元指数为78.915。周四，美元指数为83.180。仅仅超过两个星期的时间就有5%的涨幅，对外国买家而言美国产品（猪肉）更为昂贵。（即美国的猪每头比一个月前高20美元。）

上述情况并不好。这导致的行业受到挑战，并遇到真正的财务问题。综合上述问题和历史高位的粮食价格，你面临一杯充满挑战的鸡尾酒。

我们是否看到价格放松？有可能。母猪的减栏始于去年7月。而商品猪数量下降需要10个月时间。届时就是今年5月。我们相信有。同时我们期望，全球谷物生产在未来几个月内可以对养殖业更加友好。南美的作物产量都不错。美国和其他北半球作物和油籽的种植面积将达到创纪录的水平。连续两年出现干旱的几率很低。养猪业需要喘息的机会。

中国的死猪

过去的这一周出现重大事件，一些死猪漂浮在上海的江上。我们上周正在纽约，这一事件在当地的电视和报纸上都是重要新闻。据报道，出现这一事件部分原因可能是中国正在打击一些将病死猪用于食品的行为。这会导致抛弃死猪在江中的行为？一切似乎很奇怪。我们的一个合作伙伴将其称为“养猪水产”。

有趣的是，这样一个故事吸引了全球的目光。寻求养猪项目资金的成就大纽约基金（Make Large New York Funds）在新兴市场出现紧张。我们想说的是，如果这使你感到紧张，最好不要从事养猪业。养猪业是不适合胆小者或不坚定的人，但另一方面这可能会使你更加坚定。


Pork Commentary March 18, 2013 – Hog Markets Continue To Get Hammered

时间: [2013-03-18 18:05]

The US-Canada Hog Market continues to face dauntingly negative margins with average losses farrow to finish of $35-$40 per head.

The Facts

The average US Base Lean Hogs 53-54% are at 76₵/lb. a year ago same time 86₵/lb. A lower price of $20 per head. A month ago 53-54% lean hogs were 87₵ / lb. Also a drop of $20 per head.

Cash Early weans last week averaged $29.30- cash 40lb. feeder pigs averaged $61.66. Both down $20-30 per head from recent highs.

Iowa –S. Minnesota Average weights 276.9 lb. latest week, a year ago 276.3 lb.

June lean hogs peaked over $1.00 in the first part of December. Last Friday June Lean hogs closed at $89.32. June futures have dropped over $20 head since December.

Last week the US marketed 2,203 million hogs – a year ago same week 2.179 million. A few more this year.

The US dollar has gained strength versus other foreign currencies, since Feb 1. On February 1st, the US dollar index was 78.915 a measurement of its value against a basket of the world’s currencies. On Thursday the US Dollar Index was 83.180. A 5% gain in just over two weeks making US products (Pork) more expensive for foreign buyers. (e.g. US hogs were $20 per head higher a month ago)

The sum of the above is not pretty. They lead to an industry being challenged by real financial issues. Compound all the above with grain prices that are significantly high historically and you have a cocktail of real challenges.

Do we see price relief? Possibly. The liquidation of sows began last July. It takes 10 months for hog numbers to be lower which this May is. Some say there wasn’t liquidation. We believe there was. We also expect the Global Grain Picture should become more livestock friendly in the coming months. South Americas crops are good. The US and the rest of Northern Hemisphere will be planting record acreage for Grain and Oilseeds. The chances of two consecutive years of drought are low. The swine industry needs a break.

China – Dead Pigs

There has been a huge story this past week about dead pigs floating in a river by Shanghai. We were in New York City this past week and it was a major story on both TV and Newspapers there. It was reported, part of the reason could be China clamping down on pigs dying from disease from being used for food. This leads to river disposal? All seems quite bizarre. One of the people we work with called it “Porcine Aquaculture”.

It's interesting how such a story catches Global attention. Make Large New York Funds looking a funding of swine project in emerging markets nervous. All we can say is, if this makes you nervous best not get in the Pig business. The Pig business is not for the faint hearted or the non-committed, but it might lead you to become committed in another context.