艾伯塔猪肉大会

艾伯塔猪肉大会

上周，我们参加了在红鹿市举办的艾伯塔猪肉大会。

艾伯塔猪肉大会组织得很好，尤其是考虑到产业的规模达14万头母猪的情况仍有很好的参会情况。

上周四的天气并不好。离红鹿市不远的地方，有100辆车在公路干线因暴风雪出现连环撞车。很多人在事故中受伤。

和许多其他养猪业展会一样，艾伯塔猪肉大会的参展商较去年同期出现减少。更少的人销售给更少的人。向不太乐观且出现经济损失的人销售正在减少供应商的数量。

几周前，加拿大统计局公布了艾伯塔省的种猪存栏。数据表明，去年7月1日的存栏是14.02万，而今年1月1日为14.01万。没有发生变化。在许多生产商和业内人士的谈话中，没有人不信艾伯塔在过去的6个月时间里出现了种猪群的减栏。

一名业内的服务供应商告诉我们，他自己在艾伯塔省有11个独立的母猪场客户在过去的3个月开始减栏。

生产者一再告诉我们，他们对未来充满忧心。所有常见的问题、缺乏利润、高饲料成本高、劳工问题、出口市场关注等。和许多地区一样，生产者认为在其它地方养猪更容易。这太让人惊讶了，我们在在北美的任何地方都没有发现太大的区别。在一些地区有一些优点，但也有缺陷。爱荷华州的生猪价格更高，但显然比其它一些地区面临更多的疾病挑战。

一些艾伯塔的生产者自行种植饲料，但有趣的是即使是这些生产商也在寻求降低粮食价格，以帮助生猪养殖盈利。和其它地方一样，艾伯塔省的养猪生产者都希望有大量的美国玉米和大豆作物帮助缓和饲料价格。

关于培林有很多讨论。生产商都在问，培林在将来是否会因出口市场的原因不再使用。在加拿大西部的一些屠宰厂已经转为无培林。

就我个人而言，见到许多加裕客户是很好的事情。问题总是存在，但我们客户的生产成绩都很优秀。加裕为顾客的杜长大终端提供了一个完整的程序，帮助他们实现生产数据。



神奇的成绩。当你用心来成就世界上最好的种猪时，能看到将管理、饲料、健康和种猪结合在一起是一件伟大的事情。猪头数多固然重要，但他们必须上市。去年Gadsby North每头母猪贡献了超过8000磅活重，即4吨的母猪。生物性能的极限不断向前发展。

总结

我们在艾伯塔的一周坚定了我们对种猪群体出现净减少的信念。无论出于何种原因，加拿大和美国政府的统计人员漏算了一些。也许我们疯了，但事情确定发生了。全行业每头亏损40美元的现实是真的，痛苦是真实的。这会让人退出行业。猪会出现减少。在过去的一周中，我们和去年夏天减栏的一个大型生产商交谈。五月份时，最后的一批商品猪进入市场。我们期待5月的市场表现能有大的惊喜。


原文：

Pork Commentary March 25, 2013 – Alberta Pork Congress

时间: [ 2013-03-25 15:44 ]

Pork Commentary
Jim Long President – CEO Genesus Inc.
March 25, 2013

Alberta Pork Congress

This past week we were at the Alberta Pork Congress held in Red Deer.

Our Observations

Alberta Pork Congress was well organized and well attended especially when considering an industry the size of 140,000 sows.

Weather was bad on the Thursday. A 100 car pile-up on the main highway happened during a snow storm not that far from Red Deer. Several people were injured.

Alberta Congress like many other pork events had fewer exhibitors year over year. Fewer people selling to fewer producers. Selling to people with little optimism and hurting for money is cutting suppliers.

A couple weeks ago Statistics Canada released the breeding inventory for Alberta. It indicated that last year on July 1st it was 140.2 thousand while on January 1st this year it was 140.1 thousand. No change. In many conversations with producers and industry participants, there was not one person who did not believe there had been breeding herd liquidation in that six month time frame in Alberta.

An industry service provider told us that he had personally had 11 independent sow unit customers begin liquidation over the last three months in Alberta.

Producers told us repeatedly they were worried about the future. All the usual suspect issues, lack of profit, high feed costs, labour issues, export market concern etc. Like many areas producers think it must be easier to produce hogs somewhere else. Surprise, surprise, we don’t see much difference anywhere in North America. Some advantages in some areas but there are trade-offs. Iowa has higher hog prices but significantly more disease challenges than some other areas.

Many Alberta producers grow their own feed, but it is interesting that even these producers are looking for lower grain prices to help there hog operations show profitability. Like everywhere Alberta hog producers are hoping for a huge US corn and soybean crop to help moderate feed prices.

Lots of discussion on Paylean. Producers are asking if it will not be used in the future due to marketing issues in the export markets. Some packing plants in Western Canada have gone Paylean free.

On a personal note it was great to visit with many Genesus customers. Always there are issues but production of our customers are excellent. One full program Genesus customer Duroc terminal X York-Landrace females brought their production data.

Gadsby Colony North





Fantastic results. When you put your heart and soul as an organisation into making the best pig genetics in the world it’s great to see the combination of management, feed, health and genetics come together. Having big pig numbers matter but they must get to market. Last year Gadsby North had over 8,000 lbs. of liveweight per sow get to market the 4 ton sow. The limits of biological performance continues to move forward.

Summary

Our week in Alberta reinforced our belief that there has been net breeding herd liquidation that for whatever reason has been missed by both Canada and US Government statisticians. We are maybe crazy but something has happened. The industry losses pushing to $40 per head is real and the pain is real. It’s driving people out of business. There will be fewer hogs. The past week we talked to a large producers who liquidated last summer. Its last hogs go to market in May. We expect May-June could behave a big market surprise.