瘦肉猪价格 = 亏损？

瘦肉猪价格 = 亏损

【加裕周评】3月初，美国农业部的53-54%瘦肉猪全国平均价格为$87.09/磅，非常接近于90美分的盈亏平衡。上周未，53-54%瘦肉猪的全国平均价格为$77.78，每头下跌$20美元。我们预计许多自繁自养养猪生产者在这个价位将损失高达$30美元。去年同期的53-54％瘦肉平均价格为86.28美元，且饲料更加便宜。

发生了什么？

培林在俄罗斯和中国出现的问题使猪肉出口更具挑战性，并影响到需求及乐观前景。

季节性影响是一个因素。但去年猪肉产量基本相同，每头猪的价格高出20美元。

由于美国政府进行预算削减，农业部长汤姆·维尔萨克多次谈到肉品检查员被削减的情况。这正常是无助于信心建立。我们想知道是否外国买家会不相信美国有能力生产并寻找其它来源。

由于汽油价格上涨以及所得税应税收益减免额上升导致的可支配收入减少，可能会降低国内对猪肉的需求。

上周

上周我们参加了第30届贝瑟尼猪健康服务生产会议。

贝瑟尼由查理和麦克·舍尔科普夫博士以及他们的团队进行指导运作，管理着大约35,000头母猪的自繁自养猪场。我们在那里看到，很多猪场在使用加裕种猪。这个生产会议每年对母猪和育肥猪进行排名，并展示出生产趋势。看到这些年来在所有的生产指标上所取得的成果是非常有趣的事。在今年，饲料成本以及如何优化利用是一个极为重要的话题。与所有的生产部门一样，这是自上而下的差别。所有真正的好东西都会参加来获取排名并尽可能争取。

在这次会议上，Paragon Economics公司总裁史蒂夫·迈耶做了一个关于《养猪业的经济趋势》的演讲。

会议没有文字记录，但我们从中听到以下内容：

如果下雨 - 我们将有更便宜的饲料 - 每蒲式耳5.00美元以下 - 如果不下雨，价格将在8.00美元或以上。

我们将种植大量的玉米 - 可能会下雨。

培林问题影响了猪肉出口 - 中国和俄罗斯。

当前的盈亏平衡点在90美分/磅，养猪户不对母猪群减栏并期待能得到更便宜的饲料以及盈亏平衡点在今后得到下调。

美国石油和天然气的供应增加，而汽油需求明显下降 - 这可能会影响用于乙醇的玉米需求。

期望在今年夏天能得到1.00美元/磅的瘦肉猪。

美国原产国标签（ Country of Origin labelling，COOL）不断失去了所有的法庭挑战。在五月底，加拿大 - 墨西哥可以依法征收报复性关税。美国想要鼓励猪肉在全球自由贸易，但原产国标签政策给他们自己一个耳光。采取报复行动可能会针对猪肉进口并影响美国的猪肉价格。美国养猪业并不想要原产国标签政策，但不管怎么说还是发生了。

我们喜欢史蒂夫的演讲，因为他全面而简洁。我们没有人能确切知道未来是什么，但很高兴能听到像史蒂夫这样聪明人的演讲。这是一种运气。

总结

在过去30天的现货市场和期货市场中，瘦肉猪价格已经出现 大跌。 这个行业正以每周7500万美元的速度亏损。 真的很惨。

我们相信现货和期货市场都将得到恢复。和史蒂夫·迈耶一样，我们相信夏天的猪价将达到$1.00。和史蒂夫不同的是，我们认为接近1.10美元的可能性更大。夏季的牛肉和猪肉减产将推高价格。即使消费者能接受我们想要得到的$ 1.00 /磅，这个价格仍然不能与中国、俄罗斯的价格相比，且远低于日本和韩国的生猪价格。他们的消费者们可支配收入减少，没有足够的钱可以购买猪肉。

原文：

Pork Commentary March 4, 2013 – Lean Hog Price = Losses

时间: [ 2013-03-04 15:22 ]

Lean Hog Price = Losses

At the beginning of March the USDA National 53-54% lean hog price average was $87.09 a lb. and was moving close to the breakeven area in the low 90’s. At the end of last week the 53-54% National lean hog price was $77.78, a $20 per head decline. We expect many farrow to finish hog producers will be losing up to $30 per head at this price. Last year same time 53-54% was averaging $86.28 and feed was cheaper.

Why is this happening？

Paylean issues with Russia and China makes pork exports more challenging and hurts demand and optimism.

Seasonal trends are a factor but last year with about the same amount of pork production, prices were $20 per head higher.

Secretary of Ag, Vilsack’s continual discussion on meat inspectors being cut because of the US government sequester with their subsequent budget cuts. This does not help confidence in general and we wonder if foreign buyers begin to distrust the US ability to deliver and look for other sources?

Possible lower domestic pork demand because of lower disposable income from increased gasoline prices and increased income tax deductions.

Last Week

Last week we attended the 30th annual Bethany Swine Health Services Production Meeting.

Bethany under the guidance of Charlie and Mike Schelkopf DVMs and their team operate and or manage approximately 35,000 sows farrow to finish. We were there as many of the herds use Genesus Genetics. Every year the Production meeting ranks sows and finishers while showing trends in production. It is very interesting to see the gains made over the years in all production characteristics. This year the cost of feed and how to best utilize was a paramount discussion. Like all production groups there is variation from top to bottom. The real good thing is all involved know where they rank and see what is possible.

At the meeting Steve Meyer, President of Paragon Economics gave a talk “Economic Trends in the Swine Industry”

There was no text but this is what we think we heard from the talk:

If it rains – we will have cheaper feed – Below $5.00 a bushel – If it doesn’t rain $8.00 or more.

We will plant lots of corn – probably will rain

Paylean issues are hurting pork exports – China – Russia

Currently breakevens are in the low 90’s per pound, producers not liquidating sows hoping to get to cheaper feed and subsequent dropping break evens.

US oil and gas supplies increasing while gasoline demand has dropped significantly – This could affect corn for ethanol demand overtime.

Expect lean hogs to get to $1.00 lean a lb. this summer.

US Country of Origin labelling (Cool) has continually lost all court challenges. At the end of May Canada – Mexico can legally impose retaliatory tariffs. US wants to encourage global free trade for pork but Cool flies in the face of this. Retaliation could be on pork imports damaging US Pork Price. US Pork industry didn’t want Cool but got it anyway.

We enjoyed Steve’s presentation as it was thoughtful and concise. None of us knows for sure what the future is, but it’s good to hear smart people like Steve speaking of our possible destiny.

Summary

Lean Hog Prices have taken a big hit over the last 30 days both cash and futures. The industry is losing money at a rate of maybe $75 million a week. It’s ugly.

We do believe that both cash and futures will recover. Like Steve Meyers we believe Summer hogs will get to $1.00. Unlike Steve we see more upside pushing to near $1.10. Less Beef, Less Pork in the summer months will push prices higher. As far as consumer acceptance $1.00 / lb. gets us almost to, but not quite to China, Russia and far lower than Japan-Korea in hog prices. Their consumers with far less disposable income voting with their money to buy pork.